With Friday’s state tournament cutoff date two days away, 17 local teams have clinched spots, 11 are eliminated, while four are still on the bubble for a spot in the sectional tournaments.
Here’s a look at who’s still got a shot and what their chances really are of a postseason berth:
WHO: Hillsborough (7-8)
SECTION: Central Jersey Group IV
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Wednesday night vs. Montgomery in the Somerset County Tournament semifinal; vs. Phillipsburg on Thursday.
SCENARIO: The Raiders need to beat both Montgomery and Phillipsburg to gain a berth after losing to Bridgewater-Raritan on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK: The Phillipsburg game is a slam-dunk, as the State Liners are 4-12 and have just one win in the conference, but Hillsborough still needs to find a way to beat Montgomery (16-2).
I don’t see it happening.
Hillsborough has already lost to its Southwest Somerset County neighbors falling 7-1 last week, and Montgomery is on fire, including a big 4-2 victory over Immaculata on Tuesday.
The Raiders had a ton of momentum and a renewed sense of power after a clutch victory over Mount St. Mary in Saturday’s county quarterfinals, but after a heartbreaking loss to Bridgewater-Raritan on Tuesday in which the Panthers scored two in the bottom of the seventh inning to erase a 1-0 deficit and break up Hillsborough ace Megan McInaw’s no-hitter, well, the wind might have left the Raiders sails.
Still, as I learned, you can’t count out Hillsborough in big games, especially in the county tournament, so I am not ready to declare the Raiders absolutely dead quite yet.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 30%
WHO: Bound Brook (7-10)
SECTION: Central Jersey Group I
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Wednesday vs. North Warren; Thursday at Somerville; Friday at Somerset Tech.
SCENARIO: The Crusaders need to sweep their remaining three games after losing to Belvidere on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK: Even if Bound Brook beats North Warren, which it should, and even with a near-automatic victory over Somerset Tech in store for Friday, a victory over Somerville on Thursday is a longshot now that the Pioneers have Lindsey Ciresa in the circle.
I’m not going to count out Bound Brook completely, but I would be surprised to see Bound Brook playing in the state tournament
CHANCES OF QUALIFYING: 10%
WHO: Middlesex (6-4)
SECTION: Central Jersey Group I
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Wednesday vs. Cardinal McCarrick; Thursday vs. Bishop Ahr; Friday vs. Metuchen
SCENARIO: The Blue Jays need to just win one of their three remaining games to get in.
OUTLOOK: Considering Middlesex blanked Cardinal McCarrick 10-0 on Tuesday, it’s safe to say another win Wednesday is all but a sure thing. For the Blue Jays sake, they better hope so, as a win against Bishop Ahr (18-2) would be a modern-day miracle, while a game against Metuchen (5-8) isn’t something Jen Grasso’s team wants to find themselves in needing a win to qualify.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 99%
WHO: Timothy Christian (6-7)
SECTION: South Jersey Non-Public B
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Wednesday at Wardlaw-Hartridge; Friday at Somerset Tech.
SCENARIO: The Tigers need to win both games to get in
OUTLOOK: While Timothy Christian can pretty much count on a victory Friday against Somerset Tech, the Wardalw-Hartridge game really is a toss-up. The teams have had similar results against their common opponents, though the Tigers do have the desperation factor in their favor.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 49%
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