Break out the bubbly

No, I'm not talking about champagne. Sorry if I got you fired up for nothing. But Friday is the cutoff for qualifying for the state tournament, and seven teams are still on the bubble for berths.

Here’s who's definitely in and who’s definitely out (records through Monday’s games):

CENTRAL JERSEY GROUP IV
IN: Hillsborough (11-4), Hunterdon Central (15-1), Montgomery (13-6)
OUT: None

CENTRAL JERSEY GROUP II
IN: Somerville (13-3)
OUT: North Plainfield (2-13), Delaware Valley (7-11)

CENTRAL JERSEY GROUP I:
IN: Bound Brook (10-8), Dunellen (13-4)
OUT: Manville (0-13), South Hunterdon (4-8)

NORTH 2 GROUP IV
IN: Bridgewater-Raritan (13-3), North Hunterdon (14-1), Watchung Hills (9-7), Westfield (14-2)
OUT: Franklin (1-14), Piscataway (3-12), Plainfield (2-10), Ridge (3-12)

NORTH 2 GROUP III
IN: Scotch Plains-Fanwood (10-7), South Plainfield (13-4)
OUT: None

NON-PUBLIC A NORTH
IN: Immaculata (11-6), Mount St. Mary (8-4), Union Catholic ()
OUT: None

NON-PUBLIC B NORTH
IN: Gill St. Bernard’s (10-7)
OUT: None

NON-PUBLIC B SOUTH
IN: None
OUT: Timothy Christian (3-7)

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Here’s a look at the bubble teams and what needs to happen for them to get into the postseason:

WHO: Governor Livingston (8-6)
SECTION: Central Jersey Group II
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Wednesday vs. Newark Central; Thursday at Union; Friday at Union Catholic.
SCENARIO: The Highlanders are in as long as they don’t lose all three.
OUTLOOK: The defending state Group II champion is all but in – having Newark Central on the schedule pretty much locks that up. Union is a loss, while Union Catholic should be a win, but you never know. After al, GL did lose to Ridge on Monday. I did find it curious, however, that the Highlanders’ scheduled game against juggernaut Cranford on Tuesday was moved to May 28. Don’t think I didn’t notice that little magic trick.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 99%


WHO: Bernards (8-8)
SECTION: North 2 Group II
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Thursday vs. North Warren.
SCENARIO: Win and they’re in. Lose and the Mountaineers aren’t. A rainout and they’ll qualify.
OUTLOOK: Assuming there’s not some other game scheduled that nobody but the Bernards Athletic Dept. knows about, it’s a simple scenario for the Mountaineers: Just win, baby! Bernards already beat North Warren this season – 14-7 on April 8 – so you’ve gotta like the Mountaineers’ chances
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 85%


WHO: Pingry (8-9)
SECTION: Non-Public North A
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Tuesday vs. Morristown-Beard; Wednesday at Mountain Lakes; Friday vs. Arts
SCENARIO: The Big Blue need to win 2-of-3 this week to qualify, though if they get a rainout they have to win twice. Two rainouts and they’re in with one win.
OUTLOOK: Pingry beat Mo-Beard 7-2 earlier this season, and Arts, is, well, just not very good. That leaves Mountain Lakes. The best bet for the Big Blue is just two win Tuesday over Mo-Beard, bank the win Friday against Arts, thus making Wednesday’s game irrelevant. The X-factor, however, is that if Pingry splits the games with Mo-Beard and Mountain Lakes, and then get rained out Friday against Arts, no state tournament.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 70%


WHO: Voorhees (5-7)
SECTION: North 2 Group III
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Tuesday vs. Warren Hills; Thursday vs. Immaculata
SCENARIO: The Vikings need to win both games and not get rained out.
OUTLOOK: Voorhees is playing its best softball of the season. The Vikings took Bridgewater-Raritan to extra innings last week, before falling 1-0, and beat Warren Hills in Saturday’s Hunterdon/Warren quarterfinals. Voorhees will need every bit of that mojo if it is to sneak into the state tournament. The Vikings proved they can beat Warren Hills, and if they muster the same aura that they had against Bridgewater-Raritan, it isn’t unthinkable that they could beat Immaculata, especially with the Spartans scheduled to play in the Somerset County Tournament semifinals the previous evening and the hang over they might have Thursday, win or lose. This reminds me of Hillsborough last season. The Raiders a slightly more precarious scenario and I gave them even less of a chance to qualify, yet they got in. Hopefully that works for Donna Exley’s crew, here.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 50%


WHO: New Providence (5-7)
SECTION: Central Jersey Group I
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Tuesday at St. Mary’s; Wednesday vs. Kent Place; Thursday at A.L. Johnson
SCENARIO: The Pioneers cannot lose any of these games. One rainout is okay.
OUTLOOK: Bottom line is that New Providence will be praying for rain Thursday. St. Mary’s and Kent Place should be fairly easy victories for the Pioneers, while A.L. Johnson is one of the top teams in Union County. The good news is that New Providence played the Crusaders tough in their Union County Tournament meeting on Saturday – falling 8-6 after allowing eight runs in the bottom of the fourth inning – so Johnson will not, by any means, intimidate the inexperienced Pioneers.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 40%


WHO: Middlesex (5-7)
SECTION: Central Jersey Group I
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Tuesday at Highland Park, Wednesday at Cardinal McCarrick
SCENARIO: The Blue Jays must win both games. A rainout would eliminate them.
OUTLOOK: The good news is Middlesex already beat Highland Park 10-0 earlier this season. The bad news is the Blue Jays lost to Cardinal McCarrick by the same score a couple of weeks ago. Things have not gone as planned for coach Jen Grasso and friends, and I don’t think a playoff berth is in the cards.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 10%

WHO: Union Catholic (5-7)
SECTION: Non-Public North A
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Tuesday vs. Hillside; Thursday at Cranford; Friday at Governor Livingston
SCENARIO: The Vikings cannot lose a game. Two wins and a rainout gets them in.
OUTLOOK: Assuming a win over Hillside is a given, Union Catholic is still going to need a miracle – or a well-timed thunderstorm. Let’s face it, Union Catholic has little-to-no chance of beating Cranford – the Vikings were 10-runned by the Cougars in Saturday’s Union County Tournament. But even if by some miracle Thursday is a washout, the Vikings would still need to beat Governor Livingston on Friday, which is anything but automatic. Rain wont help UC there.
CHANCE OF QUALIFYING: 5%

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Check back all week for an update on the bubble teams, as well as our coverage of the county tournaments.